Risk aversion,prudence and temperance: An experiment in gain and loss

We characterize the individual's attitude towards risk, prudence and temperance in the gain and loss domains. We analyze the links between the three features of preferences for a given domain and between domains for each feature of preferences. Consequently, the reflection effect, the mixed risk aversion and the risk apportionment, are key concepts of our study. We also display some determinants for risk aversion, prudence and temperance in each domain. To do this, we conducted a lab experiment with students eliciting risk aversion, prudence and temperance in the two domains, and collected information about each subject's characteristics.     

美联储救助次贷危机的创新及对我国央行应对危机的启示

目前，全球金融体系变化的突出特征是金融体系正在由银行主导转向市场主导。这种金融结构的演进导致了金融危机的性质和区域都发生了变化。面对这种变化，关联储在次贷危机的形成过程中没有及时识别系统中的风险，未能阻止危机的爆发。不过在危机爆发后，关联储在传统救助政策的基础上发展了新的政策手段，缓解了金融市场压力。本文通过对关联储救助过程的解读，全面分析其危机管理政策，并结合我国的实际情况，提出对策建议。     

Economic performance and “frontier” efficiency: A product life-cycle approach

We propose to introduce some economic performance variables of the firms and relate these with the corresponding frontier efficiency measures of 13 industries of the Belgian manufacturing sector in 1978. In order to find groups of similar firms by applying a cluster technique, we assume that this relationship is of a product life cycle nature.In the light of the product life cycle scheme itself and variations of it we can consider the possible explanatory variables of technical inefficiency in each group of firms as sources which intensify or slow-down the economic performance of the firm under consideration. Some cautious characterization of the top and bottom level clusters is formulated and linked to the efficiency issue.This paper was processed by N. R. Adam     

Volatility equicorrelation: A cross-market perspective

This paper contains the first empirical application of the Dynamic Equicorrelation (DECO) model to a cross-market dataset composed of equities, bonds, foreign exchange rates and commodities during 1983–2013. The originality of our approach consists of examining the volatility equicorrelations, by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’. We document that the average volatility equicorrelation across markets is around 15%, while being time-varying with regime shifts before/after September 2005 and with a low mean-reversion level.     

FINANCIAL SAFETY NETS

We study the optimal design of financial safety nets under limited private credit, asking whether and when it is optimal to restrict ex ante the set of investors that can receive public liquidity support. When the government lacks commitment, we show that the optimally designed safety net covers only a subset of investors. Compared to an economy where all investors are protected, this results in more liquid portfolios, better social insurance, and higher welfare. Our results can rationalize the prevalence of limited safety nets as well as the coexistence of traditional and shadow banks.     

Extreme value statistics for censored data with heavy tails under competing risks

This paper addresses the problem of estimating, from randomly censored data subject to competing risks, the extreme value index of the (sub)-distribution function associated to one particular cause, in a heavy-tail framework. Asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. This estimator has the form of an Aalen-Johansen integral and is the first estimator proposed in this context. Estimation of extreme quantiles of the cumulative incidence function is then addressed as a consequence. A small simulation study exhibits the performances for finite samples.     

Prosecution and Leniency Programs: The Role of Bluffing in Opening Investigations

This paper characterizes the optimal investigation and leniency policies when the Competition Authority is privately informed about the strength of a cartel case. I show that the Competition Authority can then exploit firms’ uncertainty about the risk of conviction to obtain confessions even when the case is weak. More generally, I show that offering full leniency allows the Competition Authority to open more successful investigations (what I refer to as the ‘activism effect’ of leniency), which overall raises both cartel desistance and cartel deterrence. Finally, I discuss the policy implications of the model.     

The decision game: a serious game approach to understanding environmental risk management decisions

Abstract

Here we describe the implementation of an experimental research tool called the Decision Game that we used to collect data on household flood risk management decisions. Participants using this tool play an interactive game that involves making household decisions about place of residence and a variety of household expenditures, including spending on flood insurance and private flood risk mitigation. Participants also answer survey questions before and after playing the game; the pre-game survey collected demographic information, and the post-game survey collected information about participant experiences with flooding and flood mitigation. Online and face-to-face participants showed similar engagement with the experiment, and most participants appeared to have made deliberate and considered decisions about risk mitigation. Online study participants had similar responses to those who participated in person, although face-to-face participants seemed slightly more likely to mitigate against risk. Overall, participants in this research were younger, more educated and more likely to rent a home than the average Canadian. Serious games may be useful for augmenting existing data gathering strategies used in understanding environmental decision making, particularly for rare catastrophic events for which stated preference surveys may be less informative. Serious games allow for sharing a mixture of information with study participants, including maps, video clips, text and even immersive 3D experiences, and can be administered online to increase participation levels. Future research will consider longer duration online experiments and more immersive interaction frameworks.     

Policy Instruments,Patents, and International Technology Diffusion in a North-South Duopoly

This article analyzes the relationship between policy instruments and technology diffusion in a North-South duopoly within an inter-temporal model. The North benefits from a monopoly period with a new technology. At the end, there is then technology diffusion from the North to the South. The Northern firm files a patent in order to slow down the diffusion. This article studies the impact of several policy instruments. The results show that the Northern government’s policy instruments slow down technology diffusion, except for an import quota. The Southern government’s policy instruments accelerate the new technology diffusion.